Table of Contents
Ohio University Corporate MBA Program
CMBA 611: Management of Operations
Supplement E Decision Making
Decision Making
Phases of decision making
Phases of decision making
Phases of decision making
Phases of decision making
Modeling
Types of models
The value of models
The modeling process
The modeling process
The modeling process
The modeling process
The modeling process: recapitulation
Two models of decision making Both of which are manifestations of statistical decision theory
General features of both decision making models
The decision matrix
The decision matrix
The decision matrix
The decision matrix
Decision matrix: recapitulation
Decision environments
Decisions under uncertainty
Example: What’s the maximax solution?
Maximax solution
Example: What’s the maximin solution?
Maximin solution
Expected monetary value (EMV)
Decision matrix example (Text page 82)
What do the alternatives mean?
What does alternative A1 mean?
What does alternative A2 mean?
What does alternative A3 mean?
What do the events mean?
What does event E1 mean?
What does event E2 mean?
What do the probabilities mean?
What does the probability P(E1) = 1/3 mean?
What does the probability P(E1) = 2/3 mean?
Why do the probabilities sum to one?
What do the payoffs mean?
Why are these two payoffs different?
Why are these two payoffs the same?
Why are these two payoffs different?
How are the EMVs calculated?
How are the EMVs calculated?
How are the EMVs calculated?
How are the EMVs calculated?
So what’s the solution?
So what’s the solution?
Decision trees
Decision tree symbols
Decision tree symbols
Decision tree symbols
Decision tree symbols
Decision tree symbols: recapitulation
Decision tree example
Decision tree example
Decision tree example
Decision tree example
Decision tree method (cont.)
Group Assignment* for Supplement E (all due on the last day of this week’s classes)
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